2024 Oscar Predictions: VISUAL EFFECTS (October)

While it may have fizzled at the box office, the overwhelming praise for the visual effects of The Creator achieved on a smaller than usual budget for a sci-fi epic ($80M compared to upwards of $200M), Gareth Edwards’ feature should easily be in the running this season and could even be a frontrunner.

The third Guardians of the Galaxy is a sure bet for the shortlist and the first two were nominated. Marvel also has its summer flop Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and The Marvels, which comes out next month, and shortlist mentions are probably a given. Its rival DC will have a handful contenders but in the modern era of those films none have been nominated and only a few make the shortlist. This year they have The Flash, Blue Beetle and Aquaman 2.

I’ve seen some predictions for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse here, and indeed the visuals are even bigger and better than the 2018 first film, but that one didn’t even make shortlist cut much less earn a nod. Depending on how you define ‘animated’ here, 1993’s Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas and 2016’s Kubo and the Two Strings is only animated film nominee to be nominated here. But, the 2019 ‘live action’ version of The Lion King – which is 100% computer animation – was nominated and 2020’s Soul made the shortlist.

Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer should be able to make the shortlist as Dunkirk did, but the intentionally minimal visual effects could impede a nomination as it did for that WWII-era film.

The Oscar shortlists will be revealed on December 21, 2023. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions for the 10-film shortlist in Visual Effects for October 2023.

1. The Creator (20th Century Studios)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Marvel/Walt Disney)
3. The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney)
4. The Flash (Warner Bros)
5. The Marvels (Marvel/Walt Disney)
6. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Marvel/Walt Disney)
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Paramount Pictures)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
10. Elemental (Pixar)

Next up: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Warner Bros), Blue Beetle (Warner Bros), Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (Paramount Pictures), The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songs & Snakes (Lionsgate), Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Walt Disney), Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount Pictures), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)

Other contenders: Barbie (Warner Bros), Beau is Afraid (A24), Ferrari (NEON), Gran Turismo (Sony Pictures), Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures), Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Rebel Moon (Netflix), Wonka (Warner Bros)