2027 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist’s First Look at the 99th Academy Awards
Oscar prediction season now begins almost as soon as the previous ceremony ends. Every year, the same debate follows: jump in immediately or wait for the fall festivals. The savvy predictor will at least wait to see what emerges from Cannes. There is logic to holding off. At this stage, release dates shift, contenders fall apart, and supposed frontrunners quietly disappear. Mapping out a Best Picture lineup this early is, at best, an inexact science. But it is also one of the more interesting parts of the season, especially when you have a track record that suggests early signals are worth paying attention to. Projecting the race nearly a year out is not about certainty. It is about identifying the ingredients the Academy tends to reward and understanding how they combine in ways that often feel closer to alchemy than arithmetic. When those instincts hold up months later, that is where early forecasting proves meaningful.
So with that in mind, this is the first look at the 99th Academy Awards.
Before getting into individual films, I want to remind you of the framework I use at this stage. Early Best Picture forecasting tends to come down to a small set of indicators that consistently matter before the race fully forms.
- Director pedigree
- Cast strength
- Thematic relevance (or pull)
- Alignment with recent Academy preferences
It is not a perfect system, but it creates a reliable starting point for separating serious contenders from noise.
Last year, using this formula, I correctly predicted six of the eventual ten Best Picture nominees in March including Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, and Sentimental Value.
The first predictions in 2024 saw three correct selections including Conclave, Nickel Boys, and Dune: Part Two. In 2023 the alchemy identified five eventual nominees including Oppenheimer as my initial pick to win Best Picture (which I rode from start to finish), as well as Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Past Lives, and Poor Things.
That averages out to roughly five correct nominees per year over the last three cycles. At this stage of the process, that is enough consistency to trust the shape of the board as it begins to form. Early Oscar forecasting is inherently unstable, but it is not blind guesswork. It is pattern recognition through the fog of incomplete information.
With that framework in place, here is how the board currently maps heading into Cannes and the fall festivals that will reshape the race.
The Odyssey (Universal Pictures) – Christopher Nolan
Matt Damon, Zendaya, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Charlize Theron, Logan Marshall-Green, Jon Bernthal, Mia Goth, John Leguizamo, Benny Safdie, Elliott Page, Ryan Hurst, James Remar, Samantha Morton
After the Trojan War, Odysseus faces a dangerous journey home while confronting mythic obstacles along the way.
Components: Elite director pedigree, elite cast strength, massive thematic scale, established Academy trust in Nolan
This is the clearest early anchor in the race. Nolan is coming off a Best Picture win and enters with the respect of just about everyone who enjoys movies. When a filmmaker at that level returns with a large-scale mythic adaptation, it tends to dominate early conversation by default. The question at this stage is not whether it is a contender, but how much of the season it will control.
Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures) – Martin McDonagh
Sam Rockwell, John Malkovich, Parker Posey, Steve Buscemi
CIA agents navigate a volatile mission set in 1970s Chile.
Components: Strong director pedigree, strong cast strength, strong thematic pull
McDonagh enters the race with notable Academy goodwill, as his last two films both secured Best Picture nominations and strong support from acting and writing branches. The tonal blend of dark comedy and emotional weight tends to align well with Academy preferences, and on paper, it checks many of the early boxes associated with potential contenders. Searchlight has a long history of steering films like this through the season, which makes it easy to see this one sticking around once the race takes shape.
Digger (Warner Bros.) – Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Tom Cruise, Sandra Hüller, Riz Ahmed, Emma D’Arcy, John Goodman, Burn Gorman
A powerful figure attempts to prove he is humanity’s savior as global catastrophe unfolds.
Components: Strong director pedigree, strong cast strength, strong thematic pull
Digger emerges as one of the slate’s most volatile yet high-upside contenders. Iñárritu brings formidable auteur credentials, having won Best Director twice, and the cast immediately conveys prestige. Ultimately, everything comes down to tone and execution. If it resonates emotionally, it has the potential to break into the top tier; if it misses, it could land as an ambitious but divisive swing. Could this finally be Tom Cruise’s chance to win an Oscar? He’s my early frontrunner.
Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) – Phil Lord and Chris Miller
Ryan Gosling, Sandra Hüller
A man wakes up alone on a spaceship with no memory of how he got there and a mission tied to the survival of Earth.
Components: Strong thematic pull, high concept appeal, potential box office strength
PHM’s chances lean heavily on its broad appeal and crowd-pleasing accessibility, which have become more essential for Best Picture contenders trying to combat genre bias. Its commercial success, combined with Ryan Gosling’s star power, makes it a relatively safe early bet. The most comparable recent examples are Sinners and F1 from last year, both of which managed to break into the Best Picture race.
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) – Denis Villeneuve
Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Anya Taylor-Joy, Robert Pattinson, Jason Momoa, Florence Pugh, Josh Brolin, Léa Seydoux, Javier Bardem, Charlotte Rampling
Emperor Paul Atreides faces the fallout from his ascent to power as political plots and a galaxy-wide holy war endanger the future only he can see.
Components: Strong director pedigree; elite cast strength; strong thematic pull
Villeneuve’s concluding installment arrives with significant built-in momentum, as the first two films earned widespread Academy backing across multiple branches, totaling 15 nominations, including Best Picture both times, and eight wins. This finale should deliver strong box office results, and its large-scale spectacle gives it the kind of technical strength that can translate into above-the-line recognition if the story lands effectively. Its scale and proven track record ensure it remains a serious contender, but its ultimate ceiling will hinge on perception. The Academy has the chance to embrace it as a rewarding culmination in the vein of The Return of the King, or respond with a sense of familiarity, similar to how Avatar: Fire and Ash fell short.
Saturn Return (Netflix) – Greg Kwedar
Rachel Brosnahan, Will Poulter, Kim Dickens, David Morse, Charles Melton, Jean Yoon
Follows two Chicago college sweethearts over a decade as they navigate the complexities of adulthood and fate tests their youthful dreams.
Components: Solid director pedigree; strong thematic pull
Saturn Return seems well suited to the kind of intimate, character-focused storytelling that has gained momentum in the expanded Best Picture era, in the mold of films like Past Lives, Call Me by Your Name, or Brooklyn. Emotionally driven, relationship-centered stories can resonate strongly when they land, particularly with support from the actors’ branch. The film comes from Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley, the team behind Sing Sing and Train Dreams, which suggests a similar sensibility. As with those projects, the main hurdle will be visibility. A strong showing at Telluride, for example, would help build early buzz, and with solid critical support, it has a chance to stand out in a crowded field. The strength of the filmmakers involved gives it a viable path forward.
Fjord (NEON) – Cristian Mungiu
Renate Reinsve, Sebastian Stan
An immigrant Romanian family living in Norway is subject to an investigation and faces the scrutiny of the local judicial system.
Components: Solid cast strength; strong thematic pull
Films built around social tension and moral ambiguity rarely struggle to find traction with the Academy, particularly when led by performances that demand attention, which has become the standard for Renate Reinsve. With NEON behind it, this has the kind of foundation that tends to translate.
The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures) – Aaron Sorkin
Mikey Madison, Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, Jeremy Allen White, Patrick Fischler, Billy Magnussen, Jeremy Strong, Bill Burr
Follows Frances Haugen, a young Facebook engineer, who enlisted the help of Jeff Horwitz, a Wall Street Journal reporter, to blow the whistle on the social network’s most guarded secrets.
Components: Strong cast strength; strong thematic pull
Topical, real-world dramas often resonate with the Academy, particularly when supported by a cast this strong. Aaron Sorkin has built much of his career in this lane, though his recent track record has been somewhat uneven, which makes this a tougher early bet. The ingredients are all there, but execution will ultimately determine whether it comes together. The Directors branch has yet to embrace his work at the helm, though the broader Academy has been more receptive. Molly’s Game earned Sorkin a Screenplay nomination, Being the Ricardos picked up three acting nods, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 secured six nominations, including Best Picture.
And, naturally, we can’t overlook the international contenders. In each of the past four years, two non-English-language films have earned spots in the Best Picture lineup. That’s why the more perceptive and prudent pundit waits until after Cannes, when it is easier to gauge which two films are likely to make the cut. Here’s the two that I am betting on:
Fatherland (formerly 1949) – Paweł Pawlikowski
Sandra Hüller, August Diehl, Joanna Kulig, Anna Madeley
Explores Thomas Mann’s post-war German life, his family’s stand against Nazi rule and their journey into exile.
Components: Solid director pedigree; solid cast strength; strong thematic pull
Fact-based historical dramas that grapple with a country’s troubled past and its moral fallout continue to strike a chord with the Academy. Pawlikowski has already demonstrated his ability to bring that kind of material into awards contention with Cold War, and Sandra Hüller further reinforces the film’s stature. Recent international contenders such as The Zone of Interest, I’m Still Here, and The Secret Agent show how stories confronting national history can break into the Best Picture lineup. This feels like the kind of project that can steadily gather momentum and remain a quiet but persistent presence throughout the race.
Soudain (All of a Sudden) (NEON) – Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
Virginie Efira, Tao Okamoto
Two scholars exchange letters about chance and risk. As the philosopher falls ill, their academic correspondence evolves into intimate discussions about mortality and a deeper connection forms between them.
Components: Solid director pedigree; strong thematic pull
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car demonstrated how a deeply personal, character-driven drama can break into the Best Picture race. His French-language debut, Soudain (All of a Sudden), is expected to extend that approach, leaning into his signature patience and a focus on mortality and human connection, themes that consistently resonate with the Academy, particularly within its increasingly international voting body.
At this stage, many other films fit partial awards profiles. Outside of my predicted ten, these are tracking plays: films that check some of those boxes but still need the season to break their way.
Disclosure Day (Universal) – Steven Spielberg
Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, McKenna Bridger, Colin Firth, Wyatt Russell, Eve Hewson, Colman Domingo
If humanity were definitively shown we are not alone, how would we respond?
Components: Elite director pedigree; strong cast strength; strong thematic pull
Spielberg and Aliens? Sign me up!
The Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix) – David Fincher
Brad Pitt, Timothy Olyphant, Elizabeth Debicki, Carla Gugino, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Holt McCallany, Peter Weller, Scott Caan, Emily Alyn Lind
Showcases more of Cliff Booth’s backstory in his new role as a Hollywood fixer.
Components: Strong director pedigree; strong cast strength; solid thematic pull
Jack of Spades (TBD) – Joel Coen
Josh O’Connor, Damian Lewis, Lesley Manville, Frances McDormand
A gothic mystery set in 1880s Scotland.
Components: Elite director pedigree; strong cast strength; solid thematic pull;
I’m hopeful (if it doesn’t get pushed to 2027), but a key question remains about Joel working solo.
The Dog Stars (20th Century Studios) – Ridley Scott
Margaret Qualley, Jacob Elordi, Guy Pearce, Josh Brolin, Benedict Wong
In a post-apocalyptic world, a pilot searches for purpose after a pandemic devastates humanity.
Components: Elite director pedigree; strong cast strength; solid thematic pull
Would love to see it happen for Ridley Scott, though I am not sure this is the one to get him closer to Oscar.
Bucking Fastard (TBD) – Werner Herzog
Kate Mara, Rooney Mara, Orlando Bloom, Domhnall Gleeson
Two sisters, bound in uncanny ways, search for an imagined land of love.
Components: Elite director pedigree; solid cast strength; solid thematic pull
Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew (Netflix) – Greta Gerwig
Daniel Craig, Carey Mulligan, Emma Mackey, Denise Gough
An adaptation of C.S. Lewis’ origin story for Narnia.
Components: Strong director pedigree; solid cast strength
Werwulf (Focus Features) – Robert Eggers
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Willem Dafoe, Ralph Ineson, Lily-Rose Depp
In medieval Britain, a mysterious creature stalks the foggy countryside, transforming local folklore into terrifying reality as villagers face an ancient supernatural threat.
Components: Strong director pedigree; solid cast strength; solid thematic pull
Following The Witch and Nosferatu, I can’t wait to see what Eggers does with another period horror.
Behemoth! (Searchlight Pictures) – Tony Gilroy
Matthew Lillard, Pedro Pascal, Will Arnett, Olivia Wilde, Eva Victor
Follows a musician from a family of musicians who returns to Los Angeles. A love letter to the music of the movies and the people who make it.
Components: Solid director pedigree; solid cast strength; industry-centric thematic pull
Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical (A24) – Jesse Eisenberg
Julianne Moore, Paul Giamatti, Jesse Eisenberg, Cara Buono, Halle Berry, Patrick Fabian, Bernadette Peters, Havana Rose Liu
A shy woman unexpectedly cast in a local musical production loses herself in the role under the spell of the strong-willed director, immersing herself in the high-stakes world of community theater.
Components: Strong cast strength; strong thematic pull
Josephine (Sumerian Pictures) – Beth de Araújo
Mason Reeves, Channing Tatum, Gemma Chan, Michael Angelo Covino
After 8-year-old Josephine accidentally witnesses a crime in Golden Gate Park, she acts out in search of a way to regain control of her safety, while adults are helpless to console her.
Components: Strong thematic pull;
Josephine won the Golden Bear at Berlin as well as both the Grand Jury and Audience Awards at Sundance.
Cry to Heaven (TBD) – Tom Ford
Thandiwe Newton, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nicholas Hoult, Hunter Schafer, Colin Firth, Ciarán Hinds, Paul Bettany, Mark Strong, George MacKay, Owen Cooper, Daryl McCormack, Adele
Venetian nobleman Tonio Treschi rises to fame as a soprano, after his half-brother castrated him, under the guidance of opera star Guido Maffeo.
Components: Strong cast strength; Strong thematic pull
I Play Rocky (Amazon MGM Studios) – Peter Farrelly
Anthony Ippolito, Stephan James, Toby Kebbell, AnnaSophia Robb, Matt Dillon, Tracy Letts, Jay Duplass, P.J. Byrne
A failing actor writes the ultimate underdog story and must fight for his chance to play the role of a lifetime – Rocky Balboa.
Components: Strong thematic pull
This is a biopic I can get behind.
Here Comes the Flood (Netflix) – Fernando Meirelles
Denzel Washington, Robert Pattinson, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Danai Gurira, Sean Harris
A bank guard, a teller, and a master thief become entangled in a deadly game.
Components: Solid director pedigree; strong cast strength; solid thematic pull
Yes, but have you heard the one where a bank guard, a teller, and a master thief walk into a bar?
Artificial (Amazon MGM Studios) – Luca Guadagnino
Andrew Garfield, Monica Barbaro, Cooper Hoffman, Jason Schwartzman, Mark Rylance, Chris O’Dowd, Ike Barinholtz, Billie Lourd, Zosia Mamet, Yura Borisov
Follows the confusing firing and rehiring cycle of Sam Altman at OpenAI where the board gained control of the company and removed him, and Altman still returned.
Components: Solid director pedigree; strong cast strength; strong thematic pull rooted in contemporary relevance
A Long Winter (MUBI) – Andrew Haigh
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Caitríona Balfe, Fred Hechinger
Set high in the mountains, fall comes to an end and a family prepares for the long winter ahead.
Components: Solid director pedigree
The Uprising (Focus Features) – Paul Greengrass
Andrew Garfield, Thomasin McKenzie, Katherine Waterston, Jamie Bell, Tom Hollander, Jonny Lee Miller, Cosmo Jarvis, Stephen Dillane
In plague-ravaged 14th century England a peasant triggers a rebellion against King Richard II and unintentionally becomes a legend of resistance.
Components: Solid director pedigree; solid cast strength; strong thematic pull
Pressure (Focus Features) – Anthony Maras
Brendan Fraser, Kerry Condon, Damian Lewis, Andrew Scott, Chris Messina
In the tense 72 hours before D-Day, General Dwight D. Eisenhower and Captain James Stagg face an impossible choice–launch the most dangerous seaborne invasion in history or risk losing the war altogether.
Components: Solid cast strength; strong historical thematic pull
I Swear (Sony Pictures Classics) – Kirk Jones
Robert Aramayo, Peter Mullan, Shirley Henderson, Maxine Peake
John Davidson: diagnosed with Tourette’s syndrome at a young age which alienated him from his peers, he struggled with a condition few people had witnessed.
Components: Solid thematic pull
Following the BAFTA wins and chaos that followed, this will be an interesting one to keep an eye on.
Paper Tiger (NEON) – James Gray
Scarlett Johansson, Miles Teller, Adam Driver
Two brothers pursue the American Dream but get entangled in a dangerous Russian mafia scheme that terrorizes their family, testing their bond as betrayal becomes possible.
Components: Strong cast strength; solid thematic pull
Death of a Salesman (TBD) – Chinonye Chukwu
Jeffrey Wright, Octavia Spencer
Aging salesman Willy Loman grapples with family relationships he sacrificed for his career. His story weaves through themes of unfaithfulness, honesty, and pursuing the American Dream.
Components: Solid cast strength
Being Heumann (Apple) – Sian Heder
Mark Ruffalo, Dylan O’Brien, Ruth Madeley
In 1977, disability rights activist Judy Heumann led a historic 28-day occupation of San Francisco’s Federal Building, uniting protesters in a fight for accessibility laws and equal rights.
Components: Solid thematic pull
Burning Rainbow Farm (TBD) – Justin Kurze
Sebastian Stan, Leo Woodall
A pair of marijuana advocates try to hold their own against the FBI in a brutal five-day standoff.
Components: Strong thematic pull
I LOVED The Order and can’t wait to see what Kurzel does next.
The Invite (A24) – Olivia Wilde
Edward Norton, Seth Rogen, Olivia Wilde, Penélope Cruz
Joe and Angela’s marriage is on thin ice. When they invite their enigmatic upstairs neighbors for a dinner party, the night spirals into unexpected places.
Components: Solid cast strength
Clarissa (NEON) – Arie Esiri, Chuko Esiri
Ayo Edibiri, David Oyelowo, Sophie Okonedo
A re-imagining of Virginia Woolf’s “Mrs. Dalloway” set in Lagos.
Components: Solid cast strength; solid thematic pull
Tony (A24) – Matt Johnson
Dominic Sessa, Leo Woodall, Antonio Banderas, Emilia Jones, Stavros Halkias
Based on the influential chef, writer, and travel journalist Anthony Bourdain.
Components: Solid cast strength
And a few more international contenders to keep an eye on:
The Entertainment System Is Down (A24) – Ruben Östlund
Keanu Reeves, Kirsten Dunst, Tobias Menzies, Nicholas Braun, Daniel Brühl, Julie Delpy, Lindsey Duncan
Set on a long-haul flight where the entertainment system fails, the film will see passengers forced to face the horror of being bored.
Components: Solid director pedigree; strong cast strength; solid thematic pull
I really wanted to take this one in my ten, but there are rumors this is more likely to be a 2027 play, so better safe than sorry.
Parallel Tales (TBD) – Asghar Farhadi
Isabelle Huppert, Vincent Cassel, Catherine Deneuve
Showcases interconnected narratives exploring the November 2015 Paris attacks.
Components: Solid director pedigree; strong cast strength; strong thematic pull
Bitter Christmas (Sony Pictures Classics) – Pedro Almodóvar
Bárbara Lennie, Leonardo Sbaraglia, Aitana Sánchez-Gijón
A woman is abandoned by her partner during the Christmas season.
Components: Strong director pedigree; strong thematic pull
Almodóvar returns to Spanish-language films after a rather brief and unmemorable attempt at English-language.
Roma elastica (TBD) – Bertrand Mandico
Marion Cotillard, Noémie Merlant
The story revolves around an actress who is going to shoot her latest film in Rome in the 1980s.
Components: Solid cast strength
Rose (TBD) – Markus Schleinzer
Sandra Hüller, Caro Braun, Anne Klein
A woman in the early 17th century, who is disguised as a man and wants to be a good citizen at any cost.
Components: Strong thematic pull;
The trailer looks incredible, and with five films in 2026, this is the year of Hüller.
I am sure there will be a few pop-up surprises that I did not list above, but as of April, these are the movies that I feel begin the Oscar conversation.
After weighing all of this, these are my current ten Best Picture predictions for the 99th Academy Awards:
- The Odyssey (Universal Pictures)
- Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.)
- Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures)
- Digger (Warner Bros.)
- Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Fatherland (1949) (MUBI)
- Fjord (NEON)
- The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures)
- Saturn Return (Netflix)
- Soudain (All of a Sudden) (NEON)
As for Best Picture frontrunner, I’m once again looking toward Christopher Nolan with The Odyssey.
Two years ago, I took an early stand on Oppenheimer, calling the Best Picture winner in late March and staying with it wire to wire as it went on to dominate the season. I’m trusting that same instinct again here. The combination of director pedigree, scale, and built-in narrative makes The Odyssey the most complete package on the board this far out, and my early frontrunner in the race.
Now that Nolan has a Best Picture win, the next question is how his follow-up plays. The Odyssey is the first real test of that post-win momentum, and films in that position rarely enter the race quietly.
I’m also Greek, so do with that what you will.
One final note: the board will move, as it always does. But if the last few years have shown anything, it is that the early signals are not noise. They are only the first outline of a race that will stretch into a long season ahead.
- 2027 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist’s First Look at the 99th Academy Awards - April 23, 2026
- The Awards Alchemist’s Recap of the 2026 Oscars - March 16, 2026
- 2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist Predicts the Winners – Part Two - March 12, 2026
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