FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST SOUND
A big weekend for sound awards with Cinema Audio Society (CAS) and Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE), which offered us at least one little surprise to keeps things exciting.
CAS, which awards sound mixing as a single category, went with F1 as largely expected. It now has Critics Choice, CAS, AMPS (Association of Motion Picture Sound) and BAFTA.
The only films with that combo since 2013 have been Gravity (2013), Bohemian Rhapsody (2018), Sound Of Metal (2019), and Dune (2021); all went on to win the Oscar.
MPSE gave two awards to Sinners (music editing and feature dialogue/ADR) and the more surprising win for feature effects/foley to Frankenstein. Meaning, nothing for F1.
Three out of five winners with that specific Golden Reel win have gone on to win the Oscar since the Oscars merged their two sound categories. But that doesn’t take into account losses elsewhere.
The only film since 2013 to win just MPSE and go on to still win the Oscar was 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road.
Now let’s go back 20 years for films that won CAS and BAFTA and lost MPSE and what the Oscar result was:
2005: Walk the Line lost to War Of the Worlds (both lost to King Kong, which won both sound Oscars)
2008: Slumdog Millionaire lost to The Dark Knight (Slumdog Millionaire won sound mixing Oscar, The Dark Knight won sound editing Oscar)
2009: The Hurt Locker lost to Avatar (The Hurt Locker won both sound Oscars)
2011: Hugo lost to War Horse (Hugo won both sound Oscars)
2012: Les Misérables lost to Skyfall (Les Mis won sound mixing Oscar, Skyfall won sound editing Oscar)
2017: Dunkirk lost to Blade Runner 2049 (Dunkirk won both sound Oscars)
2018: Bohemian Rhapsody lost to A Quiet Place (Bohemian Rhapsody won both sound Oscars)
2020: Sound Of Metal lost to Greyhound (Sound of Metal won the Oscar)
This puts F1 in the pole position for the sound Oscar ahead of its closest competition and if Sinners was going to pull ahead it needed a different outcome this weekend that it couldn’t quite pull off.
Here are my final winner predictions in Sound for the 98th Academy Awards, which will take place on March 15, live at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, California.
| 1. F1 (Apple Original Films) Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta | AMPS, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, MPSE (x2) |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker | AMPS, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, MPSE (x2) |
| 3. Frankenstein (Netflix) Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern Villaflor | AMPS, BAFTA, CAS, MPSE |
| 4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony | BAFTA, CAS, CCA, MPSE (x3) |
| 5. Sirāt (NEON) Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas | CCA, MPSE |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Awards: ‘One Battle After Another,’ ‘The Studio’ and ‘Black Rabbit’ 
Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Golden Reel Awards: ‘Sinners,’ ‘Frankenstein’ Top Film Wins 
Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards: ‘One Battle After Another,’ ‘Sinners’ Take Film Wins, ‘The Pitt’ Sweeps TV