Click on each category for the full breakdown, stats, history and why I’m predicting what and who I am or just cut to the chase and scroll down for only the predictions. Let’s gooooo.
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, SAG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, CSA, DGA, MPSE, WGA Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)
2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA plus ACE, MPSE Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)
3. Minari (A24) – BFCA, GG (foreign), SAG, PGA plus ACE Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)
4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, CDG, CSA, DGA, MUAH, PGA, WGA Tom Ackerley, Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox (producers)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BFCA, PGA, SAG plus ADG, CSA, CDG, MPSE, MUAH, WGA Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)
6. Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, MPSE, MUAH, VES David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)
7. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – PGA plus ACE, CAS, CSA, MPSE, WGA Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche, Bill Benz, Cathy Benz (producers)
8. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, SAG, PGA plus CDG, WGA Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – PGA plus CSA, CDG, WGA Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)
If 10. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) BAFTA, GG Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)
Watch out for: News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BFCA plus ADG, CAS, MPSE, WGA Gary Goetzman, Gail Mutrux, Gregory Goodman (producers)
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, USC (WGA ineligible) Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)
2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA , USC, WGA Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BFCA , USC, WGA Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)
4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG (WGA ineligible) Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)
5. First Cow (A24) – BFCA, USC Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)
Watch out for: News of the World – BFCA , USC, WGA
1. “Io Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, GG, SCL Written by Diane Warren, Laura Pausini and Niccolò Agliardi
2. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, GG, HMMA Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
3. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, SCL Written by Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha
4. “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, HMMA Written by H.E.R., D’Mile, Tiara Thomas
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon Studios) – HMMA Written by Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, George “George 2.0.” A. Peters II
Watch out for: “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
1. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x3) Eryn Krueger Mekash (makeup department head), Patricia Dehaney (hair department head), Matthew Mungle (prosthetic designer)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x2) Sergio Lopez-Rivera (personal makeup for Viola Davis), Mia Neal (hair department head, wig designer & wig builder), Jamika Wilson (personal hair for Viola Davis)
3. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – BAFTA, MUAH Mark Coulier (prosthetic makeup designer), Dalia Colli (makeup artist), Francesco Pegoretti (hair designer)
4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH Kimberley Spiteri (hair department head), Gigi Williams (makeup department head)
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.