FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

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With the writers branch of the Academy declaring the screenplays for both Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Ava DuVernay’s Origin must compete in Adapted (and not original as both intended), there will be blood in that category, one that already had some contenders clinging for life.

Realistically, Barbie shouldn’t have too much of a problem getting into adapted but original was always going to be the easier get and it’s nominations outside of the Golden Globes (which has a single screenplay category) have all been in original. We know that includes the Writers Guild, whose nominations will come after Oscar nominations and whose winners will be a full month after the Academy Awards, nullifying them even more than usual as a precursor.

Only Oppenheimer and Poor Things nabbed all four precursors for adapted screenplays: BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and USC Scripter with American Fiction and Killers of the Flower Moon just behind with three. That could easily be our Oscar five but the cracks BAFTA exposed in Killers might be enough for either All of Us Strangers or The Zone of Interest, who both hit BAFTA, to sneak in. But Origin popping up at USC over Strangers is something to think about, especially in light of the latter’s 11th hour Oscar campaign. I’m being a little risky and ultimately going for a Killers snub in favor of Strangers here.

Over in original, the only film to hit everywhere has been Past Lives, even The Holdovers missed the Globe. But they and Anatomy of a Fall are assured here. After that it gets real tricky. Maestro surprised at BAFTA here but Cooper’s previous effort, 2018’s A Star Is Born, missed its screenplay Oscar bid (in adapted) after hitting BAFTA. Air and May December only have Critics Choice although MD made a showing with critics wins. Am I going to be a bit crazy and go with Saltburn for the last spot?

Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10. Here are my final 2024 Oscar nomination predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Barbie (Warner Bros) – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (based on the Mattel doll and characters) – BAFTA*, GG, CCA*
2. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Christopher Nolan (based on the nonfiction book American Prometheus by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC
3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Tony McNamara (based on the novel by Alasdair Gray) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC
4. American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – Cord Jefferson (based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett) – BAFTA, CCA, USC
5. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – Andrew Haigh (based on the novel Strangers by Taichi Yamada) – BAFTA, CCA

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the nonfiction book by David Grann) – CCA, GG, USC

7. The Zone of Interest (A24) – Jonathan Glazer (based on the novel by Martin Amis) – BAFTA

8. Origin (NEON) – Ava DuVernay (based on the nonfiction book Caste: The Origins of our Discontents by Isabel Wilkerson) – USC

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate) – Kelly Fremon Craig (based on the novel by Judy Blume) – CCA

10. Priscilla (A24) – Sofia Coppola (based on the autobiography Elvis and Me by Priscilla Presley and Sandra Harmon)

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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – David Hemingson – BAFTA, CCA
2. Past Lives (A24) – Celine Song – BAFTA, CCA, GG
3. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Justin Triet and Arthur Harari – BAFTA, GG
4. May December (Netflix) – Samy Burch, story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
5. Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – Emerald Fennell

6. Maestro (Netflix) – Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer – BAFTA

7. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) – Hayao Miyazaki

8. Air (Amazon Studios) – Alex Convery – CCA

9. Asteroid City (Focus Features) – Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola

10. The Iron Claw (A24) – Sean Durkin