FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE

It’s been quite a volley between The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse with wins this season, a balance that would traditionally put things neck and neck with each other.

The Boy and the Heron has the Golden Globe and BAFTA, a great combo. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has the Annie, Critics Choice and, as of last night, the PGA. An even better combo. Plus, it’s got an ACE Eddie nomination for editing, something The Boy and the Heron doesn’t have.

Only four films have won the PGA only to go on to lose the Oscar: Cars (2006), The Adventures of Tintin (2011), Wreck-It Ralph (2012), and The Lego Movie (2014), lose being a loose term for Tintin and Lego, who weren’t even nominated.

While sequels have won the Animated Feature Oscar before (Toy Story 3 and 4), if Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse wins it will be the first time an original film and its immediate sequel has since the creation of the category 22 years ago. The second year of the award the winner was Hayao Miyazaki’s Spirited Away and while rumors swirled that The Boy and the Heron would be his last film, those were quashed at the 2023 Toronto International Film Festival when it was revealed during the film’s world premiere there that he was working on his next. So with that, there’s no narrative of ‘we have to give it to him now.’

That isn’t to say that The Boy and the Heron can’t win, but the Annie+PGA for Spider-Man just feels a bit too strong here. Could it being the middle film of a trilogy keep some voters away? This is a nailbiter.

Here are my final 2024 Oscar predictions for Animated Feature.