It’s been a strange road for the documentary feature contenders this year, a fun category as it has one of the larger amount of guilds and precursors leading up to the Oscars.
The International Documentary Association, Cinema Eye Honors, Producers Guild of America, BAFTA and Critics Choice all hand out awards for nonfictions films and all five came up with different winners, a near statistical anomaly but this year simply saw much less crossover among the groups with CEH, PGA and Critics Choice all going to films who didn’t end up Oscar-nominated.
One thing we can pretty much still count on is the Critics Choice Curse, which held strong again this year. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie was the overwhelming critics’ favorite and won the Critics Choice top documentary prize and once again, the documentary branch snubbed the frontrunner. This has actually become one of the easiest things to predict each season, steering clear of the CCA winner.
20 Days in Mariupol, the film that hit the most across the board (four out of five) and has the most topical awareness should be a relatively easy pick to win here.
Here are my ranked final 2024 Oscar predictions for Documentary Feature.
| 1. 20 Days in Mariupol (BAFTA, CCA, CEH, PGA) Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath |
| 2. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (IDA) Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek |
| 3. The Eternal Memory (CCA, CEH) Nominees to be determined |
| 4. To Kill a Tiger Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim |
| 5. Four Daughters (CEH) Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha |
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