FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions: VISUAL EFFECTS

Lacking a Best Picture nominee, especially the shortlisted Poor Things (which won the BAFTA) and not shortlisted at all Oppenheimer (the Critics Choice winner), the focus of this category for some – myself included – started gravitating towards two things: films that had a Best Picture prestige and those that had another technical and/ore creative nomination to go with visual effects.

Two films fit that bill and one of the fits both. The Creator is also nominated for sound and recently won big at the Visual Effects Society (VES) awards, winning the group’s top category over fellow nominee here, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (which won a few that night as well). Although a box office flop – grossing just $40M domestically and $104M worldwide – its $80M budget is still a fraction of most its competitors and the results are more than impressive.

Napoleon, Ridley Scott’s latest rushed epic, at a budget of $200M, was a stealthy guild contender and winded up with three Oscar nominations: visual effects, costume design and production design, the latter of which is kind of a big deal. Since 1991, when Terminator 2: Judgement Day beat out Hook, only once has a film without a production design nomination bested a film that did. Napoleon is the only visual effects nominee with a corresponding production design nomination and that seemed like it was going to be enough but then it lost its VES nomination (for supporting visual effects) to…Nyad? The last time a non-Oscar nominee for visual effects beat out an Oscar-nominated film in this category was 20 years ago, when The Last Samurai bested Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. While it doesn’t effectively eliminate Napoleon’s chances here, it sure knocked it down a peg.

Then what of Godzilla Minus One? By far, it’s the passion pick here online. A huge success in the U.S., a $15M budget and the first Godzilla movie ever nominated at the Oscars, it was the little lizard that could just to get here. To win here as the sole nomination for your film isn’t easy. 2016’s The Jungle Book was the last to do it and 1992’s Death Becomes Her before that. The film was also contender at VES in a single category, individual character design for the creature himself, but lost to Raccoon in GOTG V3. Maybe the passion isn’t there after all.

2015’s Ex Machina will probably, for a long time to come, be the film we go to that overcame seemingly overwhelming odds to win here. Going up against two Best Picture nominees that shared nearly all technical and creative wins (Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant) to become the first non-BP nominee to beat a BP nominee here since 1970 changed how we look at this category because voters changed how they look at it.

I think it’s a close race for this top 3, all of which have a claim to a win. With a record-breaking three nominations here though, Neil Corbould’s chances are exponentially better than anyone else’s.