2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Spotlight’s Moment to Shine
Is this category really this locked already? Literally no other film has a vote from The Gold Rush Gang in Original Screenplay and it seems like it would be a miracle for something to break through.
This new chart also comes with a new #1, Spotlight. The dialogue-heavy dramatic thriller should go over very well with the writing branch and it vaults ahead of former #1, Joy. Another former #1 here, Inside Out, still holds strong at #3 and this top three is only separated by 6 points so it’s anyone’s game.
Elsewhere, double Oscar-winner Quentin Tarantino stays afloat with The Hateful Eight and The Coen Brothers screenplay for Bridge of Spies sits at #5.
Sometimes Best Original Screenplay is a category that finds a non-Best Picture contender in a very comfortable place and often even with frontrunner status. Not this year. All five films here look very good for Best Picture nominations. In fact, they all made the top 10 in this month’s Gold Rush Gang Best Picture predictions.
So, can anything upset? In previous months Sicario, Trainwreck, Youth and Son of Saul have all had a smattering of support and one of them could possibly bump one of these films out but it seems really unlikely. This could be the easiest category to predict, at the earliest time, of any of the 24.
Don’t forget, you can always get up to the minute Oscar predictions from the Gold Rush Gang on all of our 2016 Oscar Prediction Charts:
BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
- ‘Wishful Thinking,’ ‘Over Your Dead Body’ Among 2026 SXSW Film & TV Festival Juried and Audience Award Winners - March 21, 2026
- Association of Motion Picture Sound (AMPS) Television and Nonfiction Nominations Announced: ‘Adolescence,’ ‘Black Mirror,’ ‘Slow Horses’ and More - March 20, 2026
- Trailer Watch: ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ ‘Dune: Part Three,’ Disclosure Day,’ ‘Wild Horse Nine’ - March 20, 2026
‘Wishful Thinking,’ ‘Over Your Dead Body’ Among 2026 SXSW Film & TV Festival Juried and Audience Award Winners 
Director Watch Podcast Ep. 144 – ‘A Matter of Life and Death (Powell and Pressburger, 1946) with Special Guest Jesse Nussman 
Association of Motion Picture Sound (AMPS) Television and Nonfiction Nominations Announced: ‘Adolescence,’ ‘Black Mirror,’ ‘Slow Horses’ and More 
Trailer Watch: ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ ‘Dune: Part Three,’ Disclosure Day,’ ‘Wild Horse Nine’