2024 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (October)

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The top three in both Adapted (Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things) and Original (Barbie, The Holdovers, Past Lives) remain in place and it’s hard not to see them all riding out the season just like this. Could they move placements within that top 3? For sure, but these feel like ‘it.’

Below that, TIFF and MVFF Audience winner American Fiction continues to rise in adapted (could it pierce that top 3?), as do Anatomy of a Fall and May December in the very, very competitive original category. Jeff Nichols’ The Bikeriders recently announced it will submit in original vs adapted (the source of the film’s idea was based on a coffee table photo book) but news also came in this week that 20th Century Studios has taken the film off its December 1 berth due to the ongoing strikes and the stars inability to promote the film. No new date has been set yet but it could be the third major casualty of the ongoing strikes, where studios and streamers are fighting against fair pay, residuals and A.I. usage of actors, after MGM’s Challengers and Warner Bros.’ Dune Part Two.

The Writers Guild of America (WGA) have yet to announce their nominations or awards dates. Looking at last season, nominations were revealed January 25 and winners on March 5. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for October 2023.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Christopher Nolan (based on the book by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin) (-)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) – Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann) (-)
3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray) (-)
4. American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett (▲)
5. The Zone of Interest (A24) – Jonathan Glazer (based on the book by Martin Amis) (▼)
6. Priscilla (A24) – Sofia Coppola (based on the autobiography by Priscilla Presley and Sandra Harmon) (▲)
7. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – Andrew Haigh (based on the book by Taichi Yamada) (▼)
8. The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – Marcus Gardley (based on the novel by Alice Walker and the musical by Brenda Russell, Allee Willis, Stephen Bray, Marsha Norman) (▲)
9. Origin (NEON) – Ava DuVernay (based on the book “Caste” by Isabel Wilkerson) (▼)
10. The Taste of Things (IFC Films) – Tran Anh Hung (based on the novel by Marcel Rouffe) (▲)

Next up:

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate) – Kelly Fremon Craig (based on the novel by Judy Blume) (-)

Ferrari (NEON) – Troy Kennedy Martin (based on the novel by Brock Yates) (-)

Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics) – Mark St. Germain (based on the play by Germain) (▲)

NYAD (Netflix) – Julia Cox (based on the autobiography “Find a Way” by Diana Nyad) (▼)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) – Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham (based on the character created by Marvel Comics) (-)

Other contenders:

BlackBerry (IFC Films) – Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller (based on the book by Jacquie McNish, Sean Silcoff); The Boys in the Boat (Amazon MGM) – Mark L. Smith (based on the book by Daniel James Brown); The Burial (Amazon Studios) – Doug Wright, Maggie Betts (based on the book by Jonathan Harr); Dumb Money (Sony Pictures) – Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum (based on the book by Ben Mezrich); Eileen (NEON) – Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel (based on the novel by Moshfegh); The Killer (Netflix) – Andrew Kevin Walker (based on graphic novel by Alexis Nolent, Luc Jacamon); Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) – Taika Waititi, Iain Morris (based on the book by Mike Brett, Steve Jamison); Society of the Snow (Netflix) – J. A. Bayona, Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques, Nicolás Casariego

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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Barbie (Warner Bros) – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (-)
2. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – David Hemingson (-)
3. Past Lives (A24) – Celine Song (-)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Justin Triet and Arthur Harari (▲)
5. May December (Netflix) – Samy Burch, story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik (▲)
6. Maestro (Netflix) – Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer (▼)
7. Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – Emerald Fennell (▼)
8. Air (Amazon Studios) – Alex Convery (▼)
9. Fair Play (Netflix) – Chloe Domont (▲)
10. The Iron Claw (A24) – Sean Durkin (▲)

Next up:

Asteroid City (Focus Features) – Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (-)

The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios) – Jeff Nichols (NEW)

The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) – Hayao Miyazaki (▼)

Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) – David Scarpa (-)

Rustin (Netflix) – Julian Breece and Dustin Lance Black, story by Julian Breece (-)

Other contenders:

Beau Is Afraid (A24) – Ari Aster; Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures) – Terence Winter & Frank E. Flowers and Zach Baylin & Reinaldo Marcus Green, story by Terence Winter & Frank E. Flowers; La Chimera (NEON) – Carmela Covino, Marco Pettenello and Alice Rohrwacher; Dream Scenario (A24) – Kristoffer Borgli; Fingernails (Apple Original Films) – Christos Nikou, Stavros Raptis and Sam Steiner; A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics) – Angus MacLachlan; The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics) – Maryam Keshavarz; Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures) – Noah Galvin & Molly Gordon & Nick Lieberman & Ben Platt; A Thousand and One (Focus Features) – A.V. Rockwell