With the WGA strike ongoing and the SAG-AFTRA strike now in place since last month’s predictions, from an awards standpoint it’s going to be difficult to know how this season will truly play out. It seems unlikely the strikes will find proper resolution by the time Venice and Telluride kick off at the end of next month, what those festivals will look like in terms of films outside of what’s been announced so far, or if studios will start pulling some of their intended 2023 fall and winter releases and hold them for 2024, much like during the height of theater closures during the pandemic where several film moved into the next year.
With that, predictions will have a semblance of ‘normalcy,’ with existing dates and details until changes are revealed, but the main hope from me and everyone at AwardsWatch is unequivocally that writers and actors are able to secure contracts that value their work both artistically and financially to them, full stop.
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) both rise to the top of the list this month on the strength of their reviews in their respective films, both of which open this Friday. Were things to end up being a battle between these two it could come down to a comeback narrative, which Downey Jr. has, or the Academy’s rare venture into rewarding big, out there comedic performances like Gosling’s is, and both are previous nominees already. But Matt Damon, a previous Oscar winner and multiple nominee, makes a huge surge too as his well-reviewed turn in Oppenheimer, coupled with his raves for Air this spring, make him a real contender.
Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for July 2023.
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros)
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
John Magaro – Past Lives (A24)
Charles Melton – May December (Netflix)
Matt Damon – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (IFC Films)
Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases:
Christopher Abbott – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios)
Riz Ahmed – Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
Jason Bateman – Air (Amazon Studios)
Gael García Bernal – Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios)
Demián Bichir – Without Blood (Freemantle)
Esteban Bigliardi – Society of the Snow (Netflix)
Matt Bomer – Maestro (Netflix)
Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
Raul Castillo – Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
Josh Charles – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
Paul Dano – Spaceman (Netflix)
Harris Dickinson – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
Harris Dickinson – The Iron Claw (A24)
Joel Edgerton – The Boys in the Boat (MGM)
Jacob Elordi – Priscilla (A24)
Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
Chris Evans – Pain Hustlers (Netflix)
Mike Faist – Challengers (MGM)
Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
Noah Galvin – Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
Matthew Goode – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
Stephen Graham – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
Richard E. Grant – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
Stephen McKinley Henderson – Civil War (A24)
Lucas Hedges – Shirley (Netflix)
Terrence Howard – Shirley (Netflix)
Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
Bill Irwin – Rustin (Netflix)
Tommy Lee Jones – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
Keegan-Michael Key – Wonka (Warner Bros)
Jude Law – Firebrand (MGM)
Gabriel Leone – Ferrari NEON)
Anders Danielsen Lie – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
Eddie Marsan – Back to Black (Focus Features)
James McAvoy – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
Holt McCallany – The Iron Claw (A24)
Matthew Macfadyen – Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios)
Wagner Moura – Civil War (A24)
Jack O’Connell – Back to Black (Focus Features)
Jack O’Connell – Ferrari (NEON)
Josh O’Connor – Challengers (MGM)
Pedro Pascal – Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
Adam Pearson – A Different Man (A24)
Aaron Pierre – Foe (Amazon Studios)
Tahar Rahim – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
Seth Rogen – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Michael Shannon – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
Sebastian Stan – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
Omar Sy – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix)
Enzo Vogrincic – Society of the Snow (Netflix)
Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw (A24)
Ramy Youssef – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Without U.S. distribution: Paul Bettany – The Collaboration (TBD), Daniel Brühl – The Collaboration (TBD), Benedict Cumberbatch – The End We Start From (TBD), Willem Dafoe – Gonzo Girl (TBD), Chiwetel Ejiofor – Rob Peace (TBD), Paapa Essiedu – The Outrun (TBD), John Lithgow – Conclave (TBD), Jeremy Pope – The Collaboration (TBD), Jonathan Pryce – One Life (TBD), Andy Samberg – Lee (TBD), Alexander Skarsgård – Lee (TBD), Timothy Spall – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Stanley Tucci – Conclave (TBD)
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.