2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (July)

With the WGA strike ongoing and the SAG-AFTRA strike now in place since last month’s predictions, from an awards standpoint it’s going to be difficult to know how this season will truly play out. It seems unlikely the strikes will find proper resolution by the time Venice and Telluride kick off at the end of next month, what those festivals will look like in terms of films outside of what’s been announced so far, or if studios will start pulling some of their intended 2023 fall and winter releases and hold them for 2024, much like during the height of theater closures during the pandemic where several film moved into the next year.

With that, predictions will have a semblance of ‘normalcy,’ with existing dates and details until changes are revealed, but the main hope from me and everyone at AwardsWatch is unequivocally that writers and actors are able to secure contracts that value their work both artistically and financially to them, full stop.

Supporting Actress feels weirdly quiet other than after seeing Oppenheimer I find it hard for Emily Blunt to be able to generate, much less keep, the steam going for next six months. While she has some strong moments, her scenes are so fragmented and her ‘long suffering wife’ has no existence on her own in a woefully underwritten and deeply stereotypical role (Florence Pugh gets even less).

If MGM’s The Nickel Boys makes the 2023 cut there could be a place for previous nominee Aunjanue Ellis. She also has The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat from Searchlight Pictures but no word on the plan for that film, which was shot last fall, so far. Da’Vine Joy Randolph moves up a tick after the release of first trailer for The Holdovers, which feels like it could be her moment.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for July 2023.

1. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) – lead or supporting?
2. Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
3. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
4. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
5. Julianne Moore – May December (Netflix)
6. Viola Davis – Air (Amazon Studios)
7. Aunjanue Ellis – The Nickel Boys (MGM)
8. Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
9. Jodie Foster – Nyad (Netflix)
10. Lashana Lynch – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases:

• Uzo Aduba – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• Jodi Balfour – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Kathy Burke – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Tantoo Cardinal – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
• Gemma Chan – The Actor (NEON)
• Jessica Chastain – Mother’s Instinct (NEON) – lead or supporting?
• Olivia Colman – Wonka (Warner Bros)
• Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Juliet Cowan – Back to Black (Focus Features)
• Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (NEON)
• Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
• Anna Diop – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• Aunjanue Ellis – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting?
• Beanie Feldstein – Drive-Away Dolls (Searchlight Pictures)
• America Ferrera – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• America Ferrera – Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Anne Hathaway – Eileen (NEON)
• Anne Hathaway – Mother’s Instinct (NEON) – lead or supporting?
• Sally Hawkins – Wonka (Warner Bros)
• Stephanie Hsu – Joy Ride (Lionsgate)
• Lily James – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Kaimana – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• Erin Kellyman – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
• Sanaa Lathan – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• Patti LuPone – Beau Is Afraid (A24)
• Lesley Manville – Back to Black (Focus Features)
• Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)
• Melissa McCarthy – The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney)
• Audra McDonald – Rustin (Netflix)
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix) – lead or supporting?
• Carey Mulligan – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
• Carey Mulligan – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Annie Murphy – Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
• Niousha Noor – The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Catherine O’Hara – Pain Hustlers (Netflix)
• Allison Oliver – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
• Carrie Preston – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• CCH Pounder – Rustin (Netflix)
• Florence Pugh – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Margaret Qualley – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Renate Reinsve – A Different Man (A24)
• Isabella Rossellini – La Chimera (NEON)
• Isabella Rossellini – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Sarah Silverman – Maestro (Netflix)
• Jurnee Smollett – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Hayley Squires – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Tilda Swinton – The Killer (Netflix)
• Kristen Stewart – Love Lies Bleeding (A24)
• Maura Tierney – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Geraldine Viswanathan – Drive-Away Dolls (Searchlight Pictures)
• Shailene Woodley – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Shailene Woodley – Ferrari (NEON)
• Alfre Woodward – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)

Without U.S. distribution: Patricia Arquette – Gonzo Girl (TBD), Eileen Atkins – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Melissa Barrera – The Collaboration (TBD), Mary J. Blige – Rob Peace (TBD), Helena Bonham Carter – One Life (TBD), Connie Britton – Winner (TBD), Jessie Buckley – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Marion Cotillard – Lee (TBD), Elsie Fisher – Memory (TBD), Gemma Jones – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Deborah Mailman – The New Boy (TBD) – Cannes, Maria Mashkova – Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Viktoria Miroshnichenko – Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Kathryn Newton – Winner (TBD), Lena Olin – One Life (TBD), Andrea Riseborough – Lee (TBD), Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (TBD), Joanna Scanlan – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Katherine Waterston – The End We Start From (TBD), Merritt Wever – Memory (TBD)

Photo: : Seacia Pavao / © 2023 FOCUS FEATURES LLC