Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions are back, and just in time as critics’ groups with nominations and wins have kicked off in earnest. In just a week’s time we’ve gotten nominations for the Spirit Awards and HCA and winners from the Gothams, NYFCC, NBR, Michigan and Atlanta plus BIFAs and the AFI Top 10. And it’s only the beginning.
In this short period, the actress races have found some early solid frontrunners in Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) in Best Actress and Supporting Actress, respectively. [See the 2023/2024 Leaderboard here] Best Actor and Supporting Actor are casting wide nets and both Best Picture and Best Director are also seeing some wealth spreading at the moment with Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Past Lives and Barbie all finding some love. Anatomy of a Fall is dominating the International Feature Film wins, a category it isn’t even eligible for at the Oscars. Could there be a bit of spite for France’s choice at play? Maybe, but probably a small factor as the film was already a proven critics’ favorite since its Palme d’Or win at Cannes in the summer.
While those films and performances are establishing themselves in the race, it’s going in the opposite direction for The Color Purple. The Christmas Day release has been screening in earnest for the last three weeks but it’s struggled outside of its HCA showing yesterday. Missing both NBR and AFI top 10 lists is a pretty significant red flag for a film that normally should have done well there, especially AFI which doesn’t allow heavily non-US productions. That’s not to say it’s out entirely, it’s still very early, but something has to happen for it as there are several hungry contenders with already more to show, like May December, All of Us Strangers and Anatomy of a Fall.
We also have the 20 finalists that will compete for the Visual Effects Oscar, the 33 films eligible for Animated Feature, 167 for Documentary Feature and 88 for International Feature Film. Those shortlists of 15 titles will be revealed on December 21, 2023. Oscar nominations are set for January 23, 2024.
Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations are next week, the 11th and 13th, respectively.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 96th Academy Awards on Friday, December 8, 2023.
Best Picture
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Barbie (Warner Bros)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
The Holdovers (Focus Features)
Maestro (Netflix)
American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion)
Past Lives (A24)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
Director
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros)
Jonathan Glazer– The Zone of Interest (A24)
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix)
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion)
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix)
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros)
Supporting Actor
Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros)
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
Charles Melton – May December (Netflix)
Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Jodie Foster – NYAD (Netflix)
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
Julianne Moore – May December (Netflix)
Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Christopher Nolan (based on the book by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett
All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – Andrew Haigh (based on the book by Taichi Yamada)
Original Screenplay
Barbie (Warner Bros) – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
The Holdovers (Focus Features) – David Hemingson
Past Lives (A24) – Celine Song
Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Justin Triet and Arthur Harari
May December (Netflix) – Samy Burch, story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
Film Editing
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Jennifer Lame
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Thelma Schoonmaker
Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
The Holdovers (Focus Features) – Kevin Tent
American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) – Hilda Rasula
Cinematography
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Hoyte van Hoytema
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Rodrigo Prieto
Maestro (Netflix) – Matthew Libatique
The Zone of Interest (A24) – Łukasz Żal
Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Robbie Ryan
Production Design
Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Shona Heath, James Price (production designer), Zsuzsa Mihalek (set decorator)
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.