Gold Rush Gang 2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY & BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (August)

Phyllis Nagy’s script for Carol, based on the book “The Price of Salt” by Patricia Highsmith, reigns supreme on the Best Adapted Screenplay chart this month, well ahead of its nearest competition, The Danish Girl (based on the novel by David Ebershoff and adapted by Lucinda Coxon). But here comes Beasts of Nation. It shouldn’t be too surprising to see it in 3rd place for August as the film made huge strides in Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actor (Idris Elba) to find itself a top 5 candidate at this point in the season. Steve Jobs, written by Aaron Sorkin and based on the book by Walter Isaacson and The Revenant, written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu and Mark L. Smith and based on the novel by Michael Punke both remain relevant in the race in 4th and 5th place but are seeing cracks in their veneer. There are usurpers about in the form of Brooklyn, Our Brand Is Crisis and The Big Short waiting in the wings. Below the chart we’re keeping our eyes on Freeheld, Black Mass and Truth potentially emerge as contenders.

For the first time this season, the Disney/Pixar blockbuster Inside Out edges out Joy for the top spot on the Original Screenplay chart, albeit by a single point. It will probably be a very heated battle between the two films the entire season and both come with narratives for a win (a first animated feature win, David O. Russell winning after a stellar track of Oscar wins and nominations, he’s never won). That’s not to leave out the possibility for Suffragette if it ends being a major and unavoidable player or The Hateful Eight; Quentin Tarantino already has two wins in this category and should never be discounted. Bridge of Spies continues its tumble as most Gold Rush Gang members now feel the film is going to be an also-ran and not be a big factor this season. Trainwreck seemed like it could grab a nomination here Bridesmaids-style but there’s no Melissa McCarthy to go along with it and it seems like a reach that it will find recognition by season’s end. It’s been a great year for Amy Schumer though and she could ride her popularity all way to the Dolby. That said, there’s a bit of a dearth in choices below this list. Despite not one but two new films from Noah Baumbach (While We’re Young, Mistress America) and Woody Allen (Irrational Man), there doesn’t seem to be much to replace this top five. Still, we’ll be on the lookout for A Bigger Splash, TIFF/Venice entry Spotlight or Cannes winner Son of Saul to possibly spoil.

Don’t forget, you can always get up to the minute Oscar predictions from the Gold Rush Gang on all of our 2016 Oscar Prediction Charts:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS