Is it a risk to think Magic Mike XXL can beat its predecessor by over $40M? Yeah, it is. The original was a massive breakout of the 2012 summer season mainly because it was a fresh idea and superb counterprogramming. This time we don’t have Matthew McConaughey (or Alex Pettyfer, for that matter) so will it still play? Channing Tatum has had a pretty good three years since then (save Jupiter Ascending) so I’m inclined to say yes.
San Andreas could go either way. Disaster films haven’t done as well as they used to but then The Rock, er, Dwayne Johnson, has probably never been as popular as he is right now. Sure, Hercules failed to light up the box office last summer but there hasn’t been a successful sword & sandal epic in quite some time. Worry that an earthquake action film so soon after the Nepal disaster has some people concerned about timing but since when has an audience cared that much about world events to get in the way of their summer movie-going experience?
7. Mad Max: Fury Road – $175M – May 15
Could this movie look any better? I know this looks like a pretty bold prediction, not many R-rated films hit this high and many are comedies. Maybe it’s just internet hysteria but I really feel like this desert opera actioner is the type of film that will bring it fans of the original Mad Max series and everyone looking for something that isn’t quite so superhero infused.