2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR – Leonardo DiCaprio Still #1, Fassbender Falls, Steve Carell Enters the Race

It’s time for Best Actor predictions and Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) is still at #1. In fact, he widens his lead against #2 Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) after the disastrous opening weekend box office for Steve Jobs and with The Gold Rush Gang turning on the film with haste. It might be too hasty but for Fassbender, who hasn’t done any press for the film and who notoriously refuses to campaign, this puts his place in the Best Actor race in a tenuous one. He and Universal are going to have to find a way to lick their wounds and bypass negative press to keep him in the conversation. It was only last week that many pundits called Fassbender the “frontrunner” here. We’ll see if they change their minds in the coming weeks. After all, the Oscar race isn’t a short game, it’s a long game. If the film has stamina and support he’ll remain safely in the game but a win seems out of the question now.

But, in this strangely fluctuating Best Actor year we could see some of the fellas in the 6-10 group come up and take over. The big debut this month comes from Steve Carell in The Big Short. Perceived as lead in his film, the recent Oscar nominee (for Foxcatcher) bolts past Michael Caine (Youth) to land at #4. Carell could be a textbook afterglow nomination. Despite his poor reviews for Freeheld, I’ve heard he’s the standout in The Big Short and the film could be coming in at just the right time to capture one of the top spots in this category.

Speaking of Michael Caine, although he remains in the top 5 this month it’s by a thread. At a lowly 6 points he’s so far behind the rest of the top 5 pack and just one point ahead of The Martian‘s Matt Damon that it won’t be a surprise to see him drop off completely in the coming weeks. The rumors of his health keeping him and the film from appearing at Telluride were true and his inability to campaign could severely hamper his chances. (UPDATE: It was reported today by Deadline that Caine will be at AFI Fest with Youth and doing a post-film conversation). What that means is that Damon, Will Smith (Concussion), Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes) and Tom Hanks (Bridge of Spies) all become very formidable opponents for Caine. Who knows, once we have some category placement for Kurt Russell and Samuel L. Jackson in The Hateful Eight, that could throw another wrench into this race.

You might notice that Johnny Depp (Black Mass) is nowhere to be found on our list. Well, that’s because he’s not getting nominated. Once lauded by some pundits as an actual potential winner, Depp has been stepping in poo ever since the film’s release and not only refuses to campaign for the movie he said he doesn’t even want an Oscar. That may be true and he will likely get his wish. He stands a good chance at hitting precursors like BFCA and the Globes and maybe even SAG (which he’s won) but he is a prime candidate for this year’s annual ‘Who gets nominated for all precursors only to lose out on an Oscar nomination?’ award.

Don’t forget, you can always get up to the minute Oscar predictions from the Gold Rush Gang on all of our 2016 Oscar Prediction Charts:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS